Will China invade Taiwan by the end of the decade? The recent passage of the Anti-Secession Law aimed at bringing Taiwan back into the fold of Communist China, combined with China’s military buildup and pursuit of amphibious capabilities raises fears that an invasion is likely in the near term. John Dunn of The Dignified Rant (hat tip to Glenn Reynolds) looks at the possibility and believes that the attack will come just prior to the 2008 Olympics which will be held in Beijing.

While the military buildup and passage of the Anti-Secession Law are disturbing, these developments do not necessarily translate into an invasion of Taiwan. A report from the Naval War College Review states China must act before 2010 due to political and military reasons, but that a direct invasion is unlikely:

A more realistic, comprehensive examination of the pertinent trends reveals a different future. An attempted blockade and limited missile campaign—the most plausible attack scenario—would be more likely to produce China’s desired results in this decade than in the next. By 2010, the guardian United States will have strengthened its military position in the western Pacific relative to China, and a defensively stronger Taipei will have fully embraced, if not institutionalized, Taiwan’s increasingly popular “status quo” approach to cross-strait affairs, further marginalizing the idea of reunification. Added to other unmistakable trends, such an environment will make a PRC move on Taiwan exponentially riskier. The conservative defense planners in Beijing almost certainly realize this. If Chinese aggression in East Asia is to be deterred, Taiwan and the United States must also recognize and prepare for this alternate reality.

While the United States may be preoccupied in the Middle East with deployments Iraq, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa and elsewhere, these actions do not preclude the possibility of an American defense of the island nation. The defense of Taiwan favors America’s military strengths: air and sea power. If the US allows China to act aggressively in the Pacific, and destroy the democratic state of Taiwan, this will send shockwaves throughout the region, directly challenge American power and negatively impact the world economy. For these reasons, which will be outlined in further detail, a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan is an unlikely prospect.

The Politics

The invasion of Taiwan would not occur in a vacuum. China’s neighbors would immediately begin arming and Japan and South Korea would be forced to create a nuclear deterrent to China’s massive military force and aggressive actions in the Pacific. The United States has made a commitment to defend democracies, and despite the muddy status of Taiwan as an independent nation, there is little doubt they are a free and democratic country. The surrender of Taiwan would be a blow to the real source of US power, the domination of the sea lanes and open ocean. This is something the United States is not willing to concede without a fight, particularly to an expansionist Communist Chinese state.

US Power

The Naval War College cited above dismisses the idea of an amphibious assault on Taiwan, for a variety of reasons, most importantly the lack of resources to conduct such a complicated assault.

The most dramatic but least feasible PRC threat is an amphibious attack with hundreds of thousands of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops supported by ballistic missile barrages, aircraft, naval forces, and all manner of modified merchant ships. A host of analysts and government reports have poured cold water on this frequently discussed scenario, revealing China’s sea and airlift shortcomings, the numerous force-concentration problems associated with Formosa beach landings, and, not the least, Taiwan’s super-hardened land defenses. Piers Wood and Charles Ferguson, for example, persuasively argue that China lacks not only the amphibious assault ships to bridge the strait with enough firepower and men but also the port capacity to employ hundreds of potentially useful civilian craft. Their conclusion was shared by Admiral Dennis Blair, former commander of the U.S. Pacific forces, who not long ago reported that “the PLA is still years away from the capability to take and hold Taiwan.”

The report fails to mention the military involvement of the United States with assisting in the defense of Taiwan. An invasion of Taiwan plays directly into American military strengths. The United States' role in repelling an amphibious assault from mainland China would consist largely of US air and naval power, something that is not in great demand in the War on Terror as the Middle East operations have been more Army labor-intensive. Despite shortages in active Army divisions, the air and sea assets are available to assist the Taiwanese to smash any such invasion. US Pacific Command (USPACOM) has enormous air, ground and sea assets at its disposal.

Last year the United States Navy conducted Operation Summer Pulse 04 (see this post for additional background on China and Taiwan), which surged seven carrier battle groups into the Pacific. This was an impressive show of force that sent shockwaves throughout the Chinese government and military establishment.

At a current non-war footing, the American Fleet still maintains a significant showing. Two aircraft carriers are underway in the Pacific, the USS Kitty Hawk and the USS Nimitz, along with Marine amphibious ships USS Cleveland and USS Fort McHenry. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (USS Essex, USS Juneau and USS Harpers Ferry) is a short distance away in the Indian ocean and the 15th MEU is in the Persian Gulf. Recently the Air Force deployed B-2 Stealth bombers to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, sending the message to both China and North Korea those critical American strategic air assets can and will be forward deployed. The vast array of military asset of the United States is not lost on the Chinese military planners and policy makers.

It’s the Logistics, Stupid

The axiom that “amateurs discuss tactics; professionals discuss logistics” hold true in any potential China-Taiwan conflict. With today’s modern satellite technology, a massive invasion force aimed at Taiwan is unlikely to go unnoticed. China does not possess either an offense oriented air force or a blue water navy capable of projecting power and would be unable to stave off American power in the Taiwan Straights, North and South China Sea and the Philippine Sea. While China can initiate an amphibious assault on Taiwan, and would even be likely to land significant forces, they would not be able to sustain them over any long period of time. American air and sea power would smash any logistical resupply attempts to the forces on the ground.

No doubt the Chinese generals and planners are students of history. Many skilled armies have been lost by overextending its supply lines. Napoleon’s levy en masse and Hitler’s Wehrmacht were superior armies that perished on the steppes of Russia because they could not sustain their actions. And Nazi Germany found itself in a similar position during World War II that Communist China is in today. After the Fall of Europe in 1940 and the defeat of the British Army in the Battle of Dunkirk, Britain was left wholly defenseless, save its naval and air assets. Hitler launched a systematic attack to destroy the Royal Air Force, and the Battle of Britain raged. This operation was to be followed by Operation Sealion, the Nazi invasion of Britain. Hitler balked after Britain’s outmanned Royal Air Force drove the Luftwaffe from the skies and the ever threatening presence of the Royal Navy in and around the English Channel remained. His superior land army would have been exposed in a treacherous channel crossing and potentially cut off from its logistical chain.

The Wise Men of ChiCom

The Chinese generals, politicians and policymakers as a whole do not appear to be ignorant of their military or political options. A reading of military papers from this group indicates they understand their weaknesses and limitations. The Chinese have been very successful in diplomatic circles, as their addition as a Most Favored Nation trading partner, the handling of the P-3 intelligence plane crisis, acceptance into the World Trade Organization and other diplomatic successes indicate. China exercises its vote on the United Nations Security Council cautiously and rarely winds up on the losing side of international diplomatic crises. China has a knack for meeting its goals without the use of force.

And the Economy, Stupid

A reader response at Glenn Reynold’s site indicates the Chinese hold the power of economic strangulation, which would lead to the collapse of the US and world economy:

First they will launch a massive distraction by nationalizing every American company in China and simultaneously flooding the world currency markets with their dollar reserves while stopping the acquisition of dollars. The resultant economic crash in the U.S. will pretty much guarantee that there won't be any military action taken except if America was to be attacked directly.

The problem with this scenario is that the Chinese business barons, who often are the politicians and generals as well, would have much to lose economically. And economic warfare on this scale would likely be viewed as an overt act of war, not just by the United States, but by European nations dependent on a stable global economy.

The United States hold the true economic trump card: access to oil [it always comes back to oil…] China will become the world’s second largest importer of oil, and a large quantity is imported from the Middle East via sea routes. China does not possess a strategic oil reserve that it can fall back on in case of conflict and the ceasation of oil imports. The US Navy can easily strangle the supply of oil and instantly destroy China’s budding economy.

Conclusion

China's near term problems of insufficient military strength to conduct and sustain an amphibious assault, the superior firepower of the opposing American military, the potential economic strangulation from its source of oil and the political implications make it highly unlikely that a full scale invasion is on the horizon. The key factor to consider in this equation is the fortitude of American leadership. President Bush's commitment to freedom and democracy, and his demonstrated willingness to back up his words with actions makes it unlikely any invasion would occur before 2008. Future American leaders must clearly and consistently state the forcible reunification of Taiwan with China is unacceptable, and must show a willingness to back up its words and defend Taiwan from Communist aggression. Strength, support and vigilance are the best deterrents.

Update:

Bill Rice of By Dawn's Early Light reviews the COPE India 2004 excercise and posits the purpose of the defeat to the Indians was threefold: to convince Congress of the need for the advanced F-22 fighter, gather intelligence on the SU-30 fighter, and to simulate the defense of Taiwan.

Naruwan Fomosa posts about the military capabilities on both sides of the Taiwan Straights. Hat tip to Simon World and his wonderful Asia By Blog roundup.