Monday, October 13, 2008


An interview with Ambassador Crocker (08:14AM)
ambassador-crocker.jpg

Ambassador Ryan Crocker. AFP photo.

The following is a transcript from an Oct. 10 interview in Baghdad between Bill Murray and Ryan Crocker, US Ambassador to Iraq. Crocker became Ambassador in March 2007 after spending three years in the same post to Pakistan. Ambassador Crocker assumed his duty in Iraq just as the US military was ramping up for the surge. He is one of the most experience diplomats in the US Foreign Service, having previously served as ambassador in Lebanon, Syria and Kuwait. Crocker joined the Foreign Service in 1971 and expects to retire in early 2009.

Murray: One of the biggest fears about Iraq currently is whether the central Shia-dominate government can integrate the Sunni-dominated Sons of Iraq program successfully while not abusing their power or causing sectarian violence to flare. Now that we have a provincial election scheduled for early next year, it seems that as long as nothing changes in terms of security we could have elections with very little gamesmanship going on. Is that what the US working is trying to accomplish right now?

Crocker: I think you can safely predict that there will be gamesmanship going on. These elections are important at a number of levels and it’s very good that the election law was passed and a `not-later-than date’ set in January. They are important because they are the second round of elections. A single election does not a democracy make, multiple election do. In these elections, the incumbents are going to be fighting for their jobs.

The second way in which they are significant is because of the boycotts surrounding the first provisional election. That left a lot of imbalances in certain key provincial councils in Diyala, Baghdad and Ninawa where Sunnis are dramatically underrepresented. It seems clear that as we approach these new elections, the Sunnis are going to turn out in force.

There will also be issues in the province of Anbar, which is predominately Sunni – but because of the boycott -- there are political forces in the province that did not contest past elections but will be this time. So you are going to see a lot of positive recalibration going on. It is important that these are, and are seen to be reasonably free and fair elections. We’re working with the United Nations, with the Iraqi Election High Commission and putting measures are in place that will give people a reasonable level of confidence that these elections are legitimate. It’s going to be important going forward and it’s going to be a challenge.

Murray: I understand the period for registration for the election is now closed, but it was clear when I watched it take place in Ninewa that people, especially Sunnis, were registering at a rapid rate.

Crocker: Among the Sunnis and in general among the Iraqis, there is a lot of interest in these elections. I think you are going to see very high turnouts, certainly among the Sunni. The joke is that only about 10 percent of Sunnis voted in the last election, about 110 percent will vote in the upcoming one.

Murray: Can you give a general outline about how the political parties in Iraq will be contesting the election?

Crocker: It’s still early in the process, because the law was just passed about two and a half weeks ago, and I think we’re going to see a period of maneuvering among parties and candidates as they test out the possibility of formal and informal coalitions. Among the Shia, will the Sadrists formally or informally [ally] with the Dawa Party or the Supreme Council or neither? How will the Dawa and the Supreme Council, the two major parties among the Shia, enter into any understandings? Among the Sunnis, with the Awakening movements which have organized as political parties, how they will coalesce, will they coalesce, and what possible relationships will emerge between them and the Islamic Party? How will independents take advantage of the system; all of these remains to be worked out. So you will see a lot of political maneuvering and it is too early to tell how that is working.

Murray: You’ve mentioned in the past several weeks how Iran has been impeding progress on the security agreement, the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), that is being negotiated between the US and Iraq. Did the Bush Administration make a mistake by not guaranteeing Iraq’s foreign borders and making a choice -- by not having the agreement go through Congress -- that has allowed Iran to manipulate the discussions?

Crocker: I’m not sure I see a direct connection. The agreement is still under negotiation. We’ve been clear at the outset that this is an executive agreement and not a formal treaty, so there are not going to be these guarantees that would trigger treaty provisions. The Iranians do not want to see any kind of agreement. What they are driving for is an abrupt departure of US forces and the only interpretation we can give to that is that they are seeking destabilization.

Their stated policy is very close to the American policy – support of a stable security, democratic Iraq under the rule of law. Their actions are contrary and I can conclude from their actions, and especially their opposition to an agreement that would provide a legal basis for our troops after Jan. 1, that they are seeking instability here. They want a weak Iraq that is off-balance, that is dealing with significant security problems, because it's somehow in their best interest. This is beginning increasingly clear to Iraqis. You could argue that the more Iran pushes in opposition to an agreement, the more there is push back among Iraqis – you’ve seen this from statements by Iraqi President Talabani and other Iraqi leaders – deep resentment of Iranians telling them what they should do in a negotiations that doesn’t include Iran.

Second, increasingly we have seen what the consequences for Iraq will be if there isn’t an agreement. The Iranians create a lot of difficulties here, but they are essential a self-limiting phenomenon.

In the spring, we had the whole episode with Jaish al Mahdi (the Mahdi Army, the military arm of Iraqi leader Muqtada al Sadr). The Prime Minister took them on and it was widely seen as taking on not only extremist Shia militias, but the Iranian sponsorship behind them. That was pretty popular, not only among Sunnis, but among Shia, who had had it with the militias. And everyone saw Iran as responsible for the arming, training and support of Jaish al Mahdi.

In many ways, Iran tries to deal with Iraq like it deals with Lebanon. But as Iraqis are the first to tell you, Iraq is not Lebanon. They fought a vicious, brutal, eight-year war (with Iran) between 1980-1988 and Iraqis don’t forget that.

Saddam Hussein started that war and Iraqis all know that. Certainly in the governing structure, there are no friends of Saddam Hussein, yet that war is seen as a war between two countries, two states, two peoples, one Arab and one Persian.

I was having lunch with a retired Major General who is involved with the government; he was a Special Forces Officer, a Shia, and as I was asking questions about this battle and that battle, and as soldiers everywhere, he was starting to move silverware around the table to show troop positions, he had this intense pride of fighting for Iraq and fighting for an Arab Iraq against a Persian enemy. That whole history is out there and it doesn’t take too much of a scratch to bring it all back for Iraqis.

When we went through the rocket attacks in March and April which were launched from Sadr City, talking to an Iraqi in this area, the International Zone, he said some interesting things. He said `We remember this. This is the War of the Cities. This is the Iranian bombing Baghdad again, just like they did in the 1980s.’

So it is utterly wrong to think that somehow Iran dominates Iraqi or could dominate Iraq. When they push beyond what Iraqis are comfortable with, or when they push in ways that Iraqis view as negative, you get a sharp push back.

Murray: Does that mean that the January 1st deadline – how big a deal is the ending of the UN mandate which gives currently gives the US occupation powers in Iraq?

Crocker: It is important. Iraq has been the subject of a Chapter 7 resolution since 2003. In 2004, when an Iraqi government assumed responsibility, they continued under a Chapter 7 resolution, so the expiration of this resolution will mark a very important step in the history of a new Iraq. And things will be different.

We have to have a legal basis to operate here to do anything, whether it’s actually security operations or to train and equip [Iraqi forces], so there has to be a legal basis. The desire of the Iraqis is to move from the Security Council resolution to a bilateral agreement.

We’ve made very substantial progress, I think we’re getting to the endgame, but you don’t have an agreement until you have everything agreed and we’re not quite there yet. It is clear that this agreement is going to create a very different reality. It will affirm Iraqi sovereignty. In every respect in this agreement, Iraqi’s are controlling their own destiny in a way they don’t under the Security Council resolution, so it going to mark an important evolution in Iraq’s development as a state.

Murray: The chances of a decision before Dec. 31 are more than 50 percent?

Crocker: I think we’re going to have an agreement in place by then.

Murray: You arrived in Iraq as Ambassador in March of 2007; it’s now been about 18 months. If you were to rate Iraq right now compared to March 2007 or perhaps October 2006, rating that period perhaps as a 1, as a time of fear and loathing, versus where we are here today two years later, on a scale of 1 to 10, where do you think we are here in October 2008?

Crocker: If it’s a relative comparison, it’s well beyond 10. This is a transformed country since the time I’ve arrived. I will always remember my first visit to a Baghdad neighborhood as Ambassador. It was to Dora and the surge brigade had just moved in to the area. I’d been here in 2003 and lived here in the late 1970s, and walking through the streets of Dora a year and a half ago, it reminded me of Beirut in the 1980s, it was a war zone.

People were afraid to go out in the streets, to the big Dora market, which had only a dozen shops open, out of maybe 400. The residents were afraid to cross the bridge to go to the hospital because they thought the national police at the checkpoint would kill them because they were Sunnis. It was deeply depressing.

Dora is now utterly transformed. Not only are all 400 shops opened, the market has expanded well beyond that and during the commemoration of the birth of the last Shia Imam, tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia walked through Dora on their way to Karbala and were given food and drink by the Sunni residents. Contrast that to a time when if any Shia had tried to walk into Dora they wouldn’t have walked out, period. It’s that kind of transformation that is, to me, utterly striking.

That said, the threats are still there. Al Qaeda is diminished and in retreat, but not defeated. The Iranians clearly are trying to follow a Hezbollah model here as in Lebanon. The big Jaish al Mahdi militia model didn’t work for them. That is transforming into a non-militant organization but they are still working with Special Groups that are trained, equipped and directed by the Qods Force out of Tehran and the training is done by Lebanese Hezbollah.

So the Sunni extreme of al Qaeda, the Shia extreme of Hezbollah-like groups directed by the Qods Force represent real threats to this country and we and the Iraqis are going to have to be absolutely diligent in not letting up and tracking them down and eliminating them.

You have the challenge of services. A year ago, everybody was talking about security. Nobody worries much about security anymore in most of the country so now they’re all complaining about services. Where is the power, where is the water, where is the job opportunities and the government is going to have to step up to that? They are making progress but there is obviously a very long way to go.

And then there is the question of political evolution. There are lots of strains and pressures in this evolving system and how that evolution takes place is going to determine the future of the country. But there has been enormous progress -- coming back from Dora, putting my head on my desk, wishing I was back in Pakistan, from that moment I never would have hoped that Iraq would have come as far as it has in these 18 months, but there is still a long way to go, so we’re going to have to stay with this.

Murray: You mentioned going to Dora with the surge troops, the extra military units. The expansion of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) is one of your bailiwicks and a success. Are we at a `surge’ capacity within the State Department for PRT Teams or is the more to offer and what can we expect in the next year?

Crocker: I don’t think we’ll be establishing any more PRTs. We’ve got the country pretty well covered. In terms of staffing levels, we stay very loose and flexible. We’ve plussed up staffing at a number of PRTs because improving security condition have more opportunities to do capacity building then there were before, so staffing numbers are going to fluctuate. In some areas we may see decreases as provincial governments demonstrate increasing ability to do things on their own.

Murray: The metrics used to track PRT success can be difficult because unemployment rates and electricity delivered in megawatts are just too broad a measure, so what are some of the things you have used for examples like advances on a budget but shortages in agricultural help? The State Department has to then shop for talent back in the US who need to be convinced to leave their families for a year to work in Iraq.

Crocker: We’ve developed what we call a maturity model that the PRTs use to assess progress in various areas.

Murray: So it’s a progression, in other words. There are things to check off a list and you can look at a province and know where you are?

Crocker: We’re in our fourth evolution of these models so you can start to see trends. And I’ve told people, gild no lily here. We’ve got to be very hard-eyed on this. We don’t do ourselves or the Iraqi any favors by trying to pretend things are better than they are. It is not always going to be one happy path ascending to a sun-dappled upland.

If this is going to be done honestly, you are going to see regressions. I give special brownie points for people who give me the truth about taking steps back. Because with all the challenges out there, it is inevitable that the will be set backs as well as progress. We’re using this fairly effectively to demonstrate where the provinces are going.

Success opens up new challenges and you have to be able to see them and staff them. There are a lot of people in Washington D.C. who are real tired of seeing my number pop up on their phone because I've got to have people to do this, and I have to have them yesterday. We are getting a lot better at that. There are a lot of lessons learned out of Iraq and one has to be, as a government, on the civilian side, how we staff a major contingency.

It isn’t just the State Department here. We have people from the whole federal government, including agencies that aren’t necessarily used to working in foreign environments. We’ve got almost every Cabinet agency in America out here and I’ve been impressed how they’ve stepped up to this. We have Treasury advisors all over this country helping Iraqis do budgets. When a new Minister of Health really wanted to expand relations with us and when provinces started to stabilize so health issues could get the salience they deserved, we got a tremendous response from the Health and Human Services. The Department of Agriculture has been great.

Murray: Is there a timeframe for when there will be a retail banking system in Iraq?

Crocker: A retail banking system is evolving. You have a number of private banks out there and we’ve worked very hard in introducing electronic banking. There are now ATM machines in Iraq; the first one was about six months ago. Banks are issuing credit cards here. You can get a MasterCard, issued by an Iraqi bank. If you want another example, the Iraq dinar continues to appreciate versus the US dollar. We’re now seeing increasing numbers of transactions and larger transactions done electronically.

Murray: What kind of political capital do you think the Iraqi government has right now to stay together and grow, with the center holding, if and when the US draws down?

Crocker: The US is drawing down and will continue to draw down.

Murray: You can see it on the Forward Operating Bases. The people you talk to. Their mission is moving things in other directions, transferring ownership, basically.

Crocker: Yep. That’s a great way to put it. It is transferring ownership. Iraq’s leaders want to be in charge of their own destiny. At the same time, they want to do it in a way that doesn’t risk everything they and we have paid so much in blood and treasure to achieve. This will be an evolving process. There will also be an evolving process of what shape this state will be.

You mentioned earlier, will the center hold? It’s not just a security question; it’s also a political question. What is going to be the relationship between the center and the provinces and the Kurdish region? The constitution laid out a frame work, the provincial powers law that was passed last February further refined that but there is still a lot of work to do. The commitment I see from Iraqi leaders is to say, `OK, there are a lot of issues here, but we have to solve them peacefully.’ And that’s important, because there are a lot of challenges.

Iraq, throughout its millennial history has been governed from a strong center. It is now a federal state, with significant authorities devolving to the provinces and to the one region that exists, the Kurdish region – the Constitution provides for the creation of other regions.

They balance their own budgets; that was never the case before, it all used to come from the center. There are those that argue that the center needs to be strong. There are those that argue that the center is already too strong and the provinces need more power. These things will take time. It’s just important that the security piece stay solid and that the challenge be managed in the context of peaceful evolution.

Murray: You’ve mentioned that you’re retiring from the Foreign Service soon, but that exit strategies are difficult.

Crocker: I’m in the process of drawing down.

Murray: So timing wise, when do you think that will be and where do you expect to retire to?

Crocker: I expect to leave Iraq early in the New Year. It will be roughly two years in Iraq and since 9/11 it will be five years that I will have been deployed, when you include Pakistan and Afghanistan. So, it’s enough.

Where? Eastern Washington. My wife and I bought property east of Spokane, between Spokane and the Idaho line some years ago, but never had a chance to build on it. We’ll be doing that and look forward to renewing my connection with Whitman College (his alma mater). I’m a member of the Board of Overseers and I’ll welcome finally having the time to pay some significant attention to those duties.

Beyond knowing where I’ll be physically and knowing that I’ve got some responsibilities as an Overseer, all the rest of it I’ll figure out when I’m not doing this anymore.

Murray: Yourself and General David Petreaus are often linked together and probably will be historically; you’re both runners and have run together often. Who’s faster?

Crocker: Oh he is. No question.

Murray: He’s a little younger than you, so there is some dispensation there.

Crocker: Absolutely right.

Murray: You say flat out he's faster, even though you’re slightly different distance runners. He’s more of a middle distance guy, while you’re a marathoner.

Crocker: Early on, it was fairly clear that even though he took it easy on me, he was definitely the better runner. We never really tried it, but I kind of thought that, if you can imagine two old guys running a 440-yard dash, that I might have had a certain early advantage.

Murray: But you guys don’t run together anymore.

Crocker: No, not anymore.




Sunday, October 12, 2008


ISAF repels attacks in Helmand, launches strike into Pakistan (07:57AM)

Click to view map of attacks in Afghanistan by province, 2007 versus 2008. The numbers are thru August 2008.

US, British, and Afghan forces defeated two Taliban attacks in eastern and southern Afghanistan on Sunday. Seventy Taliban were killed during the two engagements. Five were killed as they attempted to attack from inside Pakistan.

In eastern Afghanistan, US forces launched two separate artillery strikes into Pakistan after Taliban mortar teams attempted to hit a US outpost inside Afghanistan. The outpost is located in the border district of Barmal in Paktika province, a spokesman for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) told The Long War Journal. The strikes were launched across the border into North Waziristan.

ISAF said the strikes were coordinated with the Pakistani military. US forces launched the first artillery strike after three Taliban were seen setting up a mortar tube. Pakistani forces confirmed two Taliban were killed. An hour later, a Taliban mortar team was seen setting up to hit a Pakistan Border Point. US forces launched a second volley "in defense of the Pakistani military." Three Taliban were confirmed killed by Pakistani forces.

The artillery strikes occurred the same day as a US Predator strike was launched against a Taliban and al Qaeda safe house outside of Miramshah in North Waziristan. Four Taliban were reported killed.

The Haqqani family and Taliban commander Hafiz Gul Bahadar run a parallel administration in North Waziristan, and have launched multiple cross-border strikes in Paktia, Paktika, and Khost provinces this year. Taliban and allied al Qaeda forces have attempted to over US and Afghan outposts and district centers in eastern Afghanistan this year.

In southern Afghanistan, US and Afghan forces killed more than 65 Taliban fighters after they attempted to attack an Afghan National Security Forces outpost in Lashkar Gah in Helmand province. The Taliban were seen gathering outside the town and were preparing a mortar attack when British and Afghan forces launched a counterattack. An airstrike resulted in most of the casualties, ISAF said in a press release. Mullah Qudratullah, the commander of the Taliban force, was killed in the attack, the provincial governor's spokesman told Reuters.

The attack in Helmand comes as the British are pushing for peace talks with the Taliban and news has broken that a senior Pakistani military officer was killed during a raid in Helmand province more than a year ago. British intelligence believes the Taliban have split from al Qaeda, and the time is right to cut a deal. Talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government were pushed by the British. But the so-called Taliban representatives have no standing with the group. Several members have been expelled from the organization.

US intelligence told The Long War Journal that there is no evidence of a Taliban-al Qaeda split, and in fact believes that the Taliban and Mullah Omar's ties to al Qaeda are stronger than ever. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the US would be willing to negotiate with the Taliban, but only with “reconcilable” elements – those without links to al Qaeda. Mullah Omar and other senior Taliban leaders are not considered among the reconcilable elements of the Taliban.

Afghan officials accuse the Brits of covering up a report of the death of a Pakistani military officer who was advising Taliban forces in the Sangin district in Helmand province. "When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body," The London Times reported. The Brits covered up the incident "because they care more about their relations with Islamabad than Kabul," an Afghan official told the paper.

At the time, the British were in the process of secret negotiations with the Taliban and had set up "training camps" for Taliban fighters. British diplomats claimed "the camp was just a place for them to be reintegrated, learn about hygiene and things." The cover-up and subsequent secret negotiations infuriated the Afghan government, and two British diplomats were later expelled after they were found to be conducting secret negotiations with the Taliban.




Saturday, October 11, 2008


US targets safe house in North Waziristan (03:03PM)

The US has struck inside the North Waziristan tribal agency for the second time in three days. "Two missiles struck a compound just outside Miramshah but we do not have the number of casualties at the moment," an anonymous Pakistan security official told Geo TV.

Four people were reported killed in the strike. It is unclear if any senior al Qaeda or Taliban senior leaders were among those killed.

The last US airstrike in North Waziristan targeted a meeting of senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, AFP reported. "There was a meeting of around 30 foreign Al-Qaeda and local Taliban commanders in the house of Hafiz Sahar Gul but the majority of them left the building ten minutes before the missile struck," a security official told AFP. Six low-level al Qaeda operatives and three others were killed in the Oct. 9 airstrike.

Background on strikes in Pakistan and the targeting of the Haqqani Network

The US has been heavily targeting the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan since attacks were stepped up at the end of August. Ten of the 15 strikes conducted in Pakistan's tribal areas since Aug. 31 have hit Haqqani assets in North Waziristan. A US strike hit the Haqqani's main mosque in Miramshah on Sept. 9, sparking a series of attacks against Pakistani forces in North Waziristan.

The powerful Haqqani family controls the Miramshah region in North Waziristan. The Haqqanis run a parallel government in North Waziristan and conduct military and suicide operations in eastern Afghanistan. Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani have close ties to Osama bin Laden. Siraj is one of the most wanted terrorist commanders in Afghanistan for his involvement in a string of deadly attacks and for recruiting and training foreign terrorists for suicide attacks.

The US stepped up attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas this year after the Taliban and al Qaeda consolidated control in the tribal regions and settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. There have been 23 recorded cross-border attacks and attempts in Pakistan in 2008, compared to 10 strikes during 2006 and 2007 combined.

These attacks are designed to interdict al Qaeda’s ability to conduct attacks against the West as well as degrade the Taliban’s support network being used against NATO forces in Afghanistan. Three senior al Qaeda leaders have been killed in the attacks.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, and allied terrorist groups have established 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

US attacks inside Pakistan and incidents along the border in 2008:

US targets safe house in North Waziristan
Oct. 11, 2008
US strike kills 9 al Qaeda and Taliban in North Waziristan
Oct. 9, 2008
US conducts two strikes in North Waziristan
Oct. 3, 2008
Taliban: Baitullah Mehsud alive; US strike in North Waziristan
Oct. 1, 2008
Pakistan military fires on ISAF forces
Sept. 25, 2008
Pakistani military fires on US helicopters at border
Sept. 22, 2008
US strikes Taliban camp in South Waziristan
Sept. 17, 2008
Report: US helicopters fired on while crossing Pakistani border
Sept. 15, 2008
US hits compound in North Waziristan,
Sept. 12, 2008
US targets Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
Sept. 8, 2008
US airstrike killed five al Qaeda operatives in North Waziristan,
Sept. 5, 2008
Report: US airstrike kills four in North Waziristan,
Sept. 4, 2008
Pakistanis claim US helicopter-borne forces assaulted village in South Waziristan,
Sept. 3, 2008
US hits al Qaeda safe house in North Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008
Five killed in al Qaeda safe house strike in South Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008
Al Qaeda safe house targeted in South Waziristan strike,
Aug. 20, 2008
Cross-border strike targets one of the Taliban's 157 training camps in Pakistan's northwest,
Aug. 13, 2008
Six killed in strike in South Waziristan,
July 28, 2008
Report: Strike targets Baitullah Mehsud's hideout in Pakistan,
June 14, 2008
Senior Algerian al Qaeda operative killed in May 14 strike inside Pakistan,
May 24, 2008
Missile strike kills 20 in South Waziristan,
March 16, 2008
Unprecedented Coalition strike nails the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
March 13, 2008
Missile strike on al Qaeda meeting in South Waziristan kills 13,
Feb. 28, 2008
Senior al Qaeda leader Abu Laith al Libi killed in North Waziristan,
Jan. 31, 2008





Deadwalkers in Ramadi (10:36AM)

Map of Iraq. Click to view.

RAMADI, IRAQ: The troops assigned to the 1st Battalion, 9th Marines call themselves the “Walking Dead,” but on this deployment, their missions have involved little killing – precious little combat at all, in fact. For the past seven months, the battalion has spent its first deployment to Iraq conducting operations worlds apart from what their predecessors in other wars saw – and worlds apart, too, from the operations that previous battalions conducted in Ramadi, the Anbari capital that was once the heart of the Sunni insurgency in this country.

Equally dramatic has been the reorganization of the unit for these new operations. The 1/9 advises Iraqi police units across a battlespace that an entire Army brigade once held down with difficulty. With its 45-man rifle platoons almost all broken down into 12-man adviser teams, the 1/9 Marines is almost unrecognizable as a traditional infantry battalion.

Two paths have converged in this deployment. The first is the path taken by the city of Ramadi, once one of the most contested cities in Iraq, to its current state of relative calm, with the security situation largely managed by Iraqi police units. The second is the path taken by 1/9 Marines, from its formal standup less than two years ago when the Marine Corps needed new battalions to sustain the brutal fight in Anbar, to its deployment as a radically reorganized advisory task force this past spring.

As recently as two years ago, the idea of deploying a Marine battalion to Ramadi in an advisory rather than a straight infantry capacity would have seemed unfathomable to many observers. To think that such a unit could control the volatile area then home to five full combat battalions would have seemed downright absurd. Then, Ramadi was home turf for al Qaeda in Iraq, the terrorist group fueling sectarian violence in central Iraq; huge improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, made large portions of the city impassable to the beleaguered units deployed there, which suffered fatalities at least weekly.

Today, though, the scars left by heavy machine gun and M1 Abrams main gun rounds are the only reminder of what Ramadi once was – it is a city reborn. During its deployment, according to records kept by the battalion, the Marines of 1/9 have been engaged in fewer than 10 “troops in contact” incidents (cases in which troops and insurgents exchanged gunfire), and there have been barely a dozen IED attacks on the unit’s vehicles. Two Marines have been killed, both early in the tour – a far cry from the days in which Army brigades in Ramadi suffered 70 or 80 fatalities on a deployment.

The turnaround in Ramadi is not the work of 1/9 Marines. That credit belongs to the pair of US Army brigades and the Marine battalions attached to them, and an Iraqi Army brigade that painstakingly cleared the worst insurgent strongholds during the fierce fighting of summer 2006 and late winter 2007, and to the Iraqi policemen who, following the lead of Abdul Sattar al Rishawi and other local sheikhs, stood up to al-Qaeda en masse beginning in fall 2006.

What 1/9 has done is manage success. Since the departure of the 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division in April, the 1/9 alone has been responsible for a vast area of operations in and around Ramadi. The region is wrought with tribal and political tensions. The US command and Iraqi government have held up Ramadi as a model of success. That the battalion has in fact pushed progress forward and into the hands of the Iraqi police across the area is seen as an encouraging sign as Anbar heads toward both provincial elections and further U.S. troop withdrawals.

This fall, in Ramadi and the rural areas surrounding it, the Marines of 1/9 and its replacement battalion, 2/9, have essentially pulled back not only from daily counterinsurgency operations, but also from their daily advisory role – a reflection of the increasing confidence and efficacy of the Iraqi police units that patrol the city.

On a night last week that Marines here characterized as unusually eventful, the company in charge of the city itself, Weapons Company, 2/9 Marines, commanded by Captain Dallas Shaw, found itself following the trail of the police rather than of insurgents. After a rocket attack marred the calm of northeastern Ramadi, police units from three districts had shared intelligence and detained suspects by the time Marine based at nearby Camp Karama had arrived on the scene.

A hallmark of the conflict in Iraq, for the US military, has been the constant need to reorganize units in the country on an ad hoc basis, to adapt formations better suited for conventional combat to the requirements of counterinsurgency and advisory operations. The battalions that preceded 1/9 in Ramadi trained and organized for difficult urban combat of the kind the city saw daily for years. As violence dropped during 2007, the units were compelled to reorganize on the fly. By contrast, 1/9 reorganized as an advisory task force well before it deployed, and retained that organization for the bulk of the deployment as it maintained small teams of police advisers across the sector.

In reorganizing and preparing for the advisory mission, 1/9 Marines enjoyed several advantages over other deploying units, according to the battalion commander, Lieutenant Colonel Brett Bourne. To begin with, the battalion was effectively a blank slate, with no prior deployments to the old, violent Anbar fight to unduly influence its training.

As part of the Marine Corps’s expansion for the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, 1/9 began to form during 2006 and officially stood up as an active unit in April 2007, a year before it deployed to Ramadi. This, Bourne emphasized, gave the battalion almost a year to train for the mission, a significant boost over the seven months that most Marine battalions have between deployments in the “seven on, seven off” cycle of combat tours. After its training all autumn for basic combat skills, culminating in the Mojave Viper exercises at the end of 2007, the battalion still had all winter to make changes in its structure and planning.

After a pre-deployment “leaders’ recon” in December 2007, during which the 1/9 leadership learned that they would be replacing two full battalions, Bourne and his staff and commanders instituted a sweeping change, based on reorganizations that other units had been forced to conduct once in theater. In three of the battalion’s four companies, every rifle platoon was dissolved, and the resulting pool of Marines was divided into roughly 35 advisory detachments called Police Transition Teams (PTTs); one rifle company remained as a general reserve.

In a Marine Corps based around infantry formations, and particularly rifle platoons, this change was a drastic one, but Bourne dismisses the idea that the battalion’s basic infantry skills might suffer from it later – those, he says, are “muscle memory” for Marine units. True or not, 1/9’s pre-deployment reorganization into advisory teams has been a major step in the military’s adaption to new kinds of operations. The deployment of such a reorganized battalion to Ramadi, once the most dangerous infantry battleground in the country, signifies a major step in Anbar’s move from a province all but written off as lost to the Sunni insurgency, to a province under Iraqi control in fact as well as name.




Friday, October 10, 2008


Suicide bomber hits tribal meeting in Pakistan (08:18AM)

Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the tribal areas and the NWFP. Click to view.

The Taliban continue to attack the nascent tribal organizing against it movement in Pakistan’s turbulent northwest. A suicide bomber struck at a meeting of Ali Zai tribal leaders in the Arakzai tribal agency, killing 55 and wounding more than 100.

The attack occurred as the tribal leaders were in the middle of a meeting to discuss the formation of a tribal militia, or lashkar, to secure the region and oppose the Taliban. More than 500 members of the tribe were present at the meeting, according to Geo TV.

The government has been fighting the Taliban in the city of Darra Adam Khel and in neighboring Kohat after the Taliban took control of the Indus Highway and the Kohat Tunnel. The military was able to reopen the tunnel and the highway after the Taliban held it for almost a month.

The Taliban have ruthlessly targeted tribes looking to back the government. Tribes in Kohat attempted to organize against the Taliban in January 2008. A suicide attack on a tribal leader’s meeting in early March killed 40 and wounded more than 40. Several senior tribal leaders were killed, and the organized resistance to the Taliban faltered.

The Pakistani government has been courting the tribes to support the efforts to take on the Taliban in the tribal areas and in the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. Tribal lashkars have been formed in Peshawar, Swat, Dir, Buner, Bajaur, Khyber, and Arakzai.

But the government has failed to obtain support from the major tribes, senior US military intelligence sources told The Long War Journal [see Pakistani Army rejects Waziristan operation]. The tribes that have been brought into the government’s fold are small and scattered. There is no overarching support mechanism to provide political and ideological support for those who dare to take on the Taliban.

The Taliban maintain support from the major tribal confederations, and have increased their capabilities by forming the Tehrik-e-Taliban, or the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. This organization has allowed the Taliban to coordinate military, political, and propaganda efforts.


Related:

Pakistani Army rejects Waziristan operation
Oct. 8, 2008
Taliban have not split from al Qaeda: sources
Oct. 7, 2008
Pakistan engages the tribes in effort to fight the Taliban
Sept. 29, 2008


Note: this entry was updated to reflect latest casualty figures.




Thursday, October 9, 2008


US strike kills 9 al Qaeda and Taliban in North Waziristan (02:19PM)

The US continues to target al Qaeda and Taliban safe houses and training camps in Pakistan's Taliban-controlled tribal areas. The latest attack killed nine, including six "foreign militants" - a reference to al Qaeda operatives.

At least two missiles were reported to have been fired at two known Taliban safe houses in the village of Tati near the city of Miramshah. A Reuters reporter saw an unmanned US Predator aircraft flying in the area and conducting the attack.

"The attack targeted the house of a local Taliban commander named Hafiz Sahar Gul," The News reported. Three member of Gul's family and six al Qaeda operatives were killed in the strike, according to Pakistani sources. No senior Taliban or al Qaeda leaders have been identified as killed.

The US has been heavily targeting the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan since attacks were stepped up at the end of August. Nine of the 14 strikes conducted in Pakistan's tribal areas since Aug. 31 have hit Haqqani assets in North Waziristan. A US strike hit the Haqqani's main mosque in Miramshah on Sept. 9, sparking a series of attacks against Paksitani forces in North Waziristan.

The powerful Haqqani family controls the Miramshah region in North Waziristan. The Haqqanis run a parallel government in North Waziristan and conduct military and suicide operations in eastern Afghanistan. Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani have close ties to Osama bin Laden. Siraj is one of the most wanted terrorist commanders in Afghanistan for his involvement in a string of deadly attacks and for recruiting and training foreign terrorists for suicide attacks.

The Pakistani military has shied away from confronting the Haqqanis and Hafiz Gul Bahadar, another senior Taliban commander in North Waziristan. The military commander assured the Waziri tribes that an operation would not be launched against "militant tribes" in North Waziristan. Instead the military sought to honor the February 2008 peace agreement.

The US has stepped up attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas this year after the Taliban and al Qaeda consolidated control in the tribal regions and settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. There have been 23 recorded cross-border attacks and attempts in Pakistan in 2008, compared to 10 strikes during 2006 and 2007 combined.

These attacks are designed to interdict al Qaeda’s ability to conduct attacks against the West as well as degrade the Taliban’s support network being used against NATO forces in Afghanistan. Three senior al Qaeda leaders have been killed in the attacks.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, and allied terrorist groups have established 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

The Pakistani military said it had direct orders to "open fire" on any US forces attempting to violate Pakistan's borders. The military has fired on US helicopters along the border at least three times in September. But in a briefing today in parliament, the military said it does not have the capacity to shoot down US Predators and other advanced aircraft.


US attacks inside Pakistan and incidents along the border in 2008:

US strike kills 9 al Qaeda and Taliban in North Waziristan
Oct. 9, 2008
US conducts two strikes in North Waziristan
Oct. 3, 2008
Taliban: Baitullah Mehsud alive; US strike in North Waziristan
Oct. 1, 2008
Pakistan military fires on ISAF forces
Sept. 25, 2008
Pakistani military fires on US helicopters at border
Sept. 22, 2008
US strikes Taliban camp in South Waziristan
Sept. 17, 2008
Report: US helicopters fired on while crossing Pakistani border
Sept. 15, 2008
US hits compound in North Waziristan,
Sept. 12, 2008
US targets Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
Sept. 8, 2008
US airstrike killed five al Qaeda operatives in North Waziristan,
Sept. 5, 2008
Report: US airstrike kills four in North Waziristan,
Sept. 4, 2008
Pakistanis claim US helicopter-borne forces assaulted village in South Waziristan,
Sept. 3, 2008
US hits al Qaeda safe house in North Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008
Five killed in al Qaeda safe house strike in South Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008
Al Qaeda safe house targeted in South Waziristan strike,
Aug. 20, 2008
Cross-border strike targets one of the Taliban's 157 training camps in Pakistan's northwest,
Aug. 13, 2008
Six killed in strike in South Waziristan,
July 28, 2008
Report: Strike targets Baitullah Mehsud's hideout in Pakistan,
June 14, 2008
Senior Algerian al Qaeda operative killed in May 14 strike inside Pakistan,
May 24, 2008
Missile strike kills 20 in South Waziristan,
March 16, 2008
Unprecedented Coalition strike nails the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
March 13, 2008
Missile strike on al Qaeda meeting in South Waziristan kills 13,
Feb. 28, 2008
Senior al Qaeda leader Abu Laith al Libi killed in North Waziristan,
Jan. 31, 2008





Bombings rock Islamabad, Dir (09:40AM)

Pakistan's capital is again the scene of a suicide attack after an explosive-laden car rammed into the Anti-Terrorism Police building. A deadly roadside bombing also took place in Dir, while the parliament continues to be briefed on the security situation in Northwestern Pakistan.

Eight police were wounded in the Islamabad suicide attack. "One part of the building was completely gutted, and about one and half dozen vehicles damaged," Geo TV reported. The attack occurred in the same location as Pakistan's National Training Center and Police Academy.

Police also detained a suspected suicide bomber at the Islamabad airport today.

Today's attack is he latest in a series of Taliban and al Qaeda strikes targeting security forces, government officials, and civilians in Pakistan's major cities and in the northwest. The last major attack occurred in Islamabad at the Marriott Hotel. More than 50 were killed, including 23 Westerners, and mre than 270 were wounded in teh bombings that destroyed the popular hotel.

Ten Pakistanis were killed in a roadside bombing in the settled district of Dir in the Northwest Frontier Province. A police van transporting civilians was targeted, killing four policemen and three prisoners, Geo TV reported. Three children were also killed in the strike as a school bus was close to the attack.

Dir has been the scene of fighting between the local tribes and the Taliban as some tribal leaders have formed militias to oppose the extremists. The Taliban responded by attackinga mosque filled with Ramadan worshippers, killing 25 and wounding more than 50.

Today’s attacks occurred as Pakistan’s military and intelligence services are briefing the parliament on the security situation in northwestern Pakistan. The military admitted that Swat, Shangla, and other unnamed districts outside the tribal areas are under Taliban control. The government has fought in Swat for 11 months and has been unable to clear the region of the Taliban.

The Taliban have been waging a deadly insurgency in northwestern Pakistan and in regions in Baluchistan.





Evaluating the Uighur Threat (01:09AM)
ETIM-video-1.JPG

A Uighur terrorist from a recent videotape by the Turkistan Islamic Party.

On Tuesday, a federal court ruled that 17 Uighurs (pronounced wee-ghurs) detained at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba should be released into the US. The decision undoubtedly reflects the belief that the Uighurs pose no serious threat to America or her interests. Their enemy is China, advocates argue, and they have no hostile intentions towards the US.

It is true that the Uighurs’ principal enemy is China, which has long fought a low grade war with the Uighur population. And the Chinese government, which has a miserable human rights record, has undoubtedly committed atrocities. So, it is natural that the Uighur cause would gain at least some popular support in Western countries. But as deplorable as China’s human rights record is, the US courts should not view the Uighurs at Gitmo as a non-threat. And even if the Uighur detainees were focused solely on attacking China, the US would be wrong to condone their cause.

Acts of terrorism against any country, even one with a track record as deplorable as China’s, should not be an acceptable form of resistance. Importantly, the Uighur detainees at Gitmo have all the hallmarks of committed jihadists. There is, therefore, no moral equivalency between their terrorism against China’s oppressive regime (as well as innocent civilians) and other forms legitimate resistance. This crucial distinction should be made clearer by the analysis below.

The Long War Journal has reviewed dozens of unclassified documents pertaining to the Uighur detainees. Five of the 22 Uighur detainees have reportedly been released in Albania, since no other country would take them. But The Long War Journal reviewed the government’s files for all 22 of the Uighurs who were or are detained at Gitmo. The documents were released to the public as a result of Freedom of Information Act requests by the media.

Our review of these documents, coupled with other publicly-available information, reveals several red flags that should be considered when evaluating the threat posed by the detained Uighurs. While no one should confuse any of the Uighurs detained at Gitmo for high-level terrorists such as those comprising al Qaeda’s senior leadership, it is clear that they were training to participate in hostilities. Their cause could easily be directed at American interests. In fact, there is at least some evidence that the terrorist organization responsible for training the Uighur detainees has already targeted US interests.

All of the Uighurs at Gitmo have been associated with, or been members of, the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (“ETIM”).

During the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, many nations contributed to the mujahideen’s cause. This includes China. As terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna explains in his book Inside Al Qaeda, “the People’s Republic of China trained Muslim Uighurs from the country’s far western province of Xinjiang to fight the Russians in Afghanistan.”

In a classic case of blowback, these cadres of Uighurs turned against their one-time patron when they returned home. They agitated for an independent Uighur country and took arms against the Chinese government. Throughout the 1990’s Uighur veterans of the Soviet jihad, and their recruits, executed attacks throughout the Xinjiang province. Their members even hit targets inside Beijing, the heart of China. As Gunaratna has written, this conforms “to al Qaeda’s doctrine of striking the center instead of fighting in the periphery.” It is important to note that while these attacks were often aimed at government targets, civilians were not spared. However, it is not clear how many civilians were killed in this wave of attacks.

The most lethal of the Uighur groups to evolve out of the Soviet jihad is the East Turkistan Islamic Movement. While Uighur separatist groups have struggled against the Chinese government for decades, the ETIM represented a new type of threat. The ETIM and associated groups, unlike their forerunners, is dedicated to international jihad and shares a similar ideology with al Qaeda and the Taliban. While some Uighur separatists may simply want to end Chinese repression, the ETIM is dedicated to establishing a fundamentalist Islamic state stretching from Western China through Central Asia.

The ETIM’s tactics and strategic goals have earned the group international condemnation. The organization and related Uighur terrorist groups have been designated by the UN as one of the terrorist groups affiliated with the Taliban and al Qaeda. The US Treasury Department and the US Department of Homeland Security have also designated the ETIM a terrorist organization.

The Department of Defense has released unclassified documents produced at Gitmo for the 22 Uighurs. The documents were produced during the detainee’s hearings before their Combatant Status Review Tribunals (“CSRT”) and Administrative Review Boards (“ARB”) between 2004 and 2006. All 22 of the Uighurs are alleged to have demonstrable ties to the ETIM and/or its sister organization the Sharq (East) Turkistan Islamic Partiyisa (STIP). All of the detainees were either: (a) identified as members of the ETIM and STIP and/or (b) received training at ETIM facilities and/or (c) resided at ETIM guesthouses or training facilities.

While the detainees and their advocates claim that they were solely interested in attacking Chinese interests, it is important to note that there is evidence that the ETIM has already plotted anti-American terrorism. As the State Department has noted, “two ETIM members were deported to China from Kyrgyzstan for plotting to attack the US Embassy in Kyrgyzstan as well as other US interests abroad” in May of 2002.

20 of the 22 Uighurs detained at Gitmo were allegedly trained in an ETIM training camp and/or other facilities. At least 15 of the Uighurs detained at Gitmo have admitted that they received weapons training. The main training camp at which the Uighurs trained was reportedly sponsored by al Qaeda and the Taliban.

In the unclassified documents released by the DOD, 20 of 22 Uighurs were alleged to have received training in Afghanistan. The Uighurs allegedly trained on light arms, including how to breakdown or fire a Kalashnikov rifle. At least some of the detainees also allegedly received religious instruction, including how to read the Koran. The US government also alleges that one of the detainees was a weapons instructor from May through October of 2001.

In addition to examining the US government’s claims, The Long War Journal examined the detainees’ testimony. The DOD released transcripts of testimony for 19 of the 22 Uighur detainees. The detainees frequently denied the government’s allegations. Interestingly, however, 15 of the 19 Uighur detainees who testified admitted to receiving some form of training in Afghanistan. Most, if not all, of the detainees claimed they received the training in order to fight against the Chinese government.

The training took place primarily at the ETIM’s training camp in Tora Bora. A minimum of 15 detainees, out of the total 20 who received training, were trained at the ETIM’s Tora Bora facilities. There were also two instances in which detainees were allegedly trained to use small arms at ETIM guesthouses in Kabul and Kartisi, Afghanistan. The government’s files note that the Kabul guesthouse was “Taliban-sanctioned.” In one instance, a detainee was alleged to have “received training in an al Qaeda sponsored camp two hours North or Northwest of [Jalalabad], Afghanistan.” In a few instances, it is not entirely clear where in Afghanistan Uighur detainees received their training.

Throughout the unclassified Gitmo documents, the government alleges that the ETIM’s training camp at Tora Bora was sponsored by the Taliban and al Qaeda. The government claims the “training camp was provided to the Uighurs by the Taliban” and “funded by bin Laden and the Taliban.” One unclassified document explains the recruiting network that drew the Uighurs to Afghanistan more fully:

[The] ETIM, reportedly with financial support and direction from Osama bin Laden, recruits within remote areas of Eastern China and ships recruits to training camps in Afghanistan. These recruits then return to China to conduct terrorist activities and extend their influence. Training includes religious extremist theory, terrorism, explosives, and assassination. Some training camps also include the manufacturing of weapons, ammunitions, and explosive devices.

None of the 19 Uighur detainees admitted any connection between the Taliban, al Qaeda and the ETIM’s training facilities during their testimony before their tribunals or review boards. The Uighurs frequently denied any association with al Qaeda or the Taliban. As one of the Uighurs, Bahtiyar Mahnut, put it: “Al Qaeda…those people don’t care if we go or not or anything [about] people. They just destroy everything and we’re not crazy like those people. We’re not going to get along with those kind[s] of people… we have nothing to do with that.”

The Uighur detainees may very well not be aware of any link between the ETIM and al Qaeda. Or, they may be lying. But it is unlikely that the ETIM operated training camps inside Taliban-controlled Afghanistan without, at the very least, the regime’s acquiescence. And as Gunaratna has pointed out previously, “al Qaeda and the [ETIM] have released a number of statements and videos where ETIM is training in al Qaeda camps with their instructors.” In a recent interview with The Long War Journal, Mr. Gunaratna pointed out that a small cadre of ETIM fighters had relocated to Federally Administered Tribal Areas of northern Pakistan. There, according to Gunaratna, they receive training from al Qaeda and al Qaeda-allied forces.

Some of the Uighur detainees are alleged to have fought in Afghanistan.

At least three of the Uighur detainees are alleged to have participated in hostilities in Afghanistan. The US government alleges that one of the Uighurs, Ahmad Tourson, “stated that he traveled to Konduz, AF and then on to Mazar-e-Sharif to fight against General Dostum's troops.” It is not clear when Tourson allegedly made this admission. During his CSRT hearing Tourson denied traveling to Mazar-e-Sharif to fight.

The battle for Mazar-e-Sharif began in the second week of November 2001. The Northern Alliance, backed by US airpower, quickly took hold of the city after a brief gunbattle with Taliban forces. The city is a major strategic point in Afghanistan, and it took the Taliban years to gain control of it. So when coalition forces approached in late 2001, the Taliban called in reinforcements from the many jihadist terrorist groups operating on Afghani soil. It is certainly plausible that Tourson was one of those who made their way to Mazar-e-Sharif in support of the Taliban’s operations. Although he denied traveling to Mazar-e-Sharif to fight, Tourson admitted that the Northern Alliance captured him there.

Most of the Uighur detainees were at Tora Bora during the US bombing campaign in late 2001 because they had been attending training classes there. Two of them are alleged to have “participated” in the battle of Tora Bora. The government alleges that Yusef Abbas “participated in the battle of Tora Bora” and “was wounded as a result of coalition bombing, and received medical treatment from the Taliban.” During his CSRT testimony, Abbas denied these allegations. “No, I didn't participate in any fighting,” Abbas claimed. He claimed that a fellow Uighur, and not the Taliban, attended to his wounds. Similarly, Uighur detainee Abdullah Abdulqadirakhun denied that he participated in the battle of Tora Bora.

The majority of the detainees are not alleged to have participated in fighting in Afghanistan. But this may be because they were, by and large, new recruits. Most the Uighur detainees traveled to Afghanistan in the months immediately preceding the September 11 attacks. In the aftermath of the American-led counterattack, many of the jihadist forces were left to scramble for refuge. In fact, most of the Uighur detainees were captured by Pakistani authorities after fleeing across the border, just as many hundreds of their Arab counterparts did.

The Uighur’s advocates maintain that they were solely focused on using their new skills against the Chinese. But ETIM recruits have fought alongside their fellow jihadists throughout central Asia. The ETIM has a particularly close relationship with another al Qaeda affiliate, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (“IMU”). And the IMU frequently filled al Qaeda’s and the Taliban’s ranks with willing fighters. It is at least possible, then, that the ETIM’s new recruits may have ended up on the battlefields of central Asia as opposed to western China.

At least several of the Uighur detainees have ties to the ETIM’s senior leadership, which is, in turn, tied to the senior leadership of al Qaeda.

A key figure in the nexus between the ETIM and al Qaeda is a deceased terrorist named Hassan Mahsum. Mahsum reportedly brokered the relationship between al Qaeda and the ETIM in the 1990’s. According to some reports, he even received $300,000 from Osama bin Laden directly. This claim may come from the Chinese government, which is not always the most reliable broker of information. However, the DOD’s unclassified files are replete with references to al Qaeda’s sponsorship of the ETIM. As the DOD alleged in one document:

“Mahsum aligned his organization with Osama Bin Laden (OBL) and it is now considered part of al Qaida. Since 2000, its core has been located at an al Qaida camp near Tora Bora. The fighters, under the authority of OBL, are considered a combat sub-unit of the Taliban.”

Former Indian intelligence officer B. Raman has explained the relationship between Mahsum’s ETIM and al Qaeda in similar terms. Raman has written that the ETIM “is a major component of the terrorist network headed by bin Laden” throughout South and Central Asia. Raman has further claimed:

“Hassan Mahsum, the ETIM ringleader, used to hide in Kabul and had an Afghan passport issued by the Taliban. Bin Laden asked the ETIM to stir up trouble in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and then stage an organized infiltration into Xinjiang. The ‘Turkistan Army’ under the ETIM fought along with the Taliban in Afghanistan. This ‘Army’ has a special ‘China Battalion’ with about 320 terrorists from Xinjiang. The battalion is under the direct command of Hassan Mahsum's deputy Kabar.”

Other experts agree with Raman that there was a definite relationship between Mahsum and al Qaeda. For example, Gunaratna has described the relationship between al Qaeda and the ETIM as “very strong.” In an interview earlier this year, Gunaratna explained:

Hassan Mahsum, the leader of ETIM, was killed in South Waziristan--the area that al Qaeda was operating in 2003--by the Pakistani forces. There have been a number of ETIM members arrested in Pakistan and Afghanistan. They are working very [closely] with Al-Qaeda. Abu [Zubaydah], the operations chief for Al-Qaeda, met with Uighur radical groups entering Pakistan. The relationship between the two is very strong.

The relationship between Mahsum and bin Laden is germane to the analysis of the Uighur detainees. Not only did Mahsum run the ETIM, to which all of the Uighur detainees have been tied, but he also had direct dealings with at least some of the Uighur detainees.

For example, according to the DOD, one Uighur named Nag Mohammed was “closely associated with” Mahsum. “In late September 2000,” the government claimed Mohammed “traveled from Turkistan, through Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan, to Kabul, Afghanistan for an Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) meeting.” The DOD did not release a transcript of Mohammed’s testimony, so it appears that he did not participate in either his CSRT or ARB hearings. And, therefore, we do not know his response to this allegation.

Another Uighur detainee named Abdullah Abdulqadirakhun admitted during his CSRT hearing that Mahsum personally trained him at the Tora Bora camp sometime between September and mid-October of 2001. Similarly, Uighur detainee Yusef Abbas claimed that Mahsum showed him how to use the Kalashnikov. Two others admitted to seeing or meeting Mahsum as well. Bahtiyar Mahnut admitted during his ARB testimony that Mahsum visited the Tora Bora camp while he was there and that he met the ETIM chieftain. Huzaifa Parhat also admitted he saw Mahsum at the Tora Bora camp. (Earlier this year, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit decided that Parhat had been wrongly labeled an “enemy combatant” at Gitmo.)

After Mahsum was killed in 2003, a terrorist named Abdul Haq assumed control of the organization. Haq and Mahsum had worked together for years, recruiting and training Uighurs in camps in Afghanistan.

Several of the Uighur Gitmo detainees admitted that Haq ran the Tora Bora camp. And there is evidence that at least some of the detainees were personally supervised by Abdul Haq. During his CSRT testimony Bahtiyar Mahnut explained, “The person running the camp [at Tora Bora] was named Abdul Haq, and he was a Uighur.”

“The first day I came to the camp, Abdul Haq told me that I had to give him my passport and whenever I wanted to leave I could ask for it back,” Mahnut elaborated. “He then took my passport from me.”

The practice Mahnut describes is common. New jihadist recruits typically turn in their passports when they arrive at guesthouses or training camps. This is al Qaeda’s standard modus operandi as well. The recruits are given new jihadist identities and their paperwork is kept for security reasons.

The Long War Journal’s review of the DOD’s unclassified documents demonstrates that a number of the Uighur detainees admitted ties to senior ETIM leaders Hassan Mahsum and Abdul Haq. This is a significant red flag because both men are committed jihadists with longstanding ties to al Qaeda, the Taliban, and the international jihadist network. That the Uighur detainees had dealings with these men is not surprising because most of them attended Mahsum’s and Haq’s training camp at Tora Bora.

The ETIM, and Abdul Haq, remain a threat.

The Uighur detainee’s ties to the ETIM’s senior leadership is particularly troubling given the ETIM’s and Abdul Haq’s continued operations. The ETIM has not been put out of business. Instead, it has evolved into possibly one or more organizations, with some members simply blending in with their fellow jihadists in northern Pakistan. The core of the ETIM remains focused on launching terrorist operations.

According to the State Department, Chinese authorities broke up an ETIM training camp in January of 2007. In the process, they killed 18 ETIM members and arrested 17 others. “According to police reports,” the State Department explained, “Chinese police seized hand grenades, unassembled explosives, detonators, and the equivalent of $38,705 dollars in cash.” This raid followed several other ETIM-related incidents in recent years.

ETIM-video-2.JPG

The Turkistan Islamic Party threatened to attack the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.

Then, earlier this year, a group calling itself the Turkistan Islamic Party released a video threatening to target the Beijing Olympics. The organization behind the video is widely believed to be the ETIM, which simply adopted a new name. According to a translation of the video provided by Laura Mansfield, the ETIM spokesman on the video warned:

“This is our last warning to China and the rest of the world. The viewers and athletes, especially those who are Muslim, who plan to go to the Olympics should change their plans and not go to China. The Turkistan Islamic Party plans military attacks on people, offices, arenas, and other activities that are connected to the Chinese Olympic Games.”

The attacks did not happen. But the threats were serious enough to warrant stepped up security and at least some experts, like Gunaratna, considered the ETIM to be the “pre-eminent threat” to the Olympic Games. In addition, the ETIM spokesman also claimed credit for several other earlier attacks, including a series of bus bombings. These claims may have been hyped, but it is clear that the ETIM remains a viable force.

There is one last item worth noting. According to some accounts, the brain behind the threat made against the Olympic Games and the ETIM’s ongoing operations is Abdul Haq – the same man who once trained the Uighur detainees at Gitmo. Haq remains at large.

And if a US federal court gets its way, his trainees will soon be free men (presumably under surveillance) on American soil as well.




Wednesday, October 8, 2008


Pakistani Army rejects Waziristan operation (07:49PM)

With military operations underway in Swat and the tribal agency of Bajaur, the Pakistani Army moved to quell rumors of a pending operation in the Taliban stronghold of North Waziristan, according to reports from Pakistan. In South Waziristan, the Waziri tribes are calling for the government to abide by a peace deal.

Brigadier General Khushnood Iqbal Kiyani, the commander of the garrison in Mirali, sought to reassure the "Utmanzai tribal militants" after rumors spread that an operation would be launched in North Waziristan on Oct. 10. "He made it clear that the government would abide by its peace agreement, which it had signed with Utmanzai tribesmen on February 17," The News reported.

The rumored target of the operation was Hafiz Gul Bahadar, a senior Taliban leader in North Waziristan. Bahadar was one of the signatories of the Feb. 17 peace agreement that ended clashes in the region. He also signed the Sept. 2006 North Waziristan Accord, along with other senior Taliban leaders. Bahadar has opposed fighting the Pakistani military but sponsors al Qaeda camps and sends fighters into Afghanistan.

In neighboring South Waziristan, the Ahmedzai Wazir tribe sought to dissuade the government from launching an operation. Tribal leaders met with Taliban leader Mullah Nazir "to seek assurance for peace in the Wazir areas and he committed to maintain peace," Daily Times reported.

"I want peace, but the government appears uninterested in peace in the Wazir areas," Nazir told the tribal committee. "I will stick to the peace deal as long as the government does." Nazir refused to meet with government officials, but the tribal leaders said the government was interested in maintaining a dialog to stave off fighting.

Nazir is a rival of Pakistani Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud. Nazir is often described as a "pro-government" Taliban leader as he does not advocate overthrowing the Pakistani government. He ejected Uzbeks from the al Qaeda-allied Islamic Jihad Union from the Wana region in 2007.

But Nazir openly supports al Qaeda and its leadership and admitted he would provide shelter to senior al Qaeda leaders. "How can I say no to any request from Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar under tribal traditions, if they approach me to get shelter?" Nazir asked the Pakistani press in the spring of 2007.

Arab al Qaeda operatives help finance Nazir’s operations. He also openly supports the continuation of the jihad in Afghanistan and vowed to provide fighters to support the Taliban.

Pakistan's tribal problems

The government's hesitance to move against the Taliban and al Qaeda camps in North and South Waziristan highlights the problems Pakistan faces with the tribes in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province. The Utmanzai Wazir tribe in North Waziristan and the Ahmedzai Wazir tribe in South Waziristan are firmly behind the Taliban, as the interactions with Bahadar, Nazir, Mehsud, the Haqqanis, and other Taliban leaders in the region shows.

While the government has had some success in getting tribes to oppose the Taliban in Bajaur, Swat, Khyber, Dir, and Buner, the tribes are being pealed off piecemeal. And the major tribes do not back the government's efforts to raise tribal lashkars, or militias, to drive out the Taliban and al Qaeda entrenched in the region.

"Most of the current resistance is centered around the Shia in Gilgit and Parachinar or among the Barelvi Muslims and Nuristani polytheists of the region," the source said. "The Deobandi Pashtuns from the Ghilzai and Yusufzai tribal confederations that make up the bedrock of Taliban and al Qaeda support in the FATA/NWFP (Federally Administered Tribal Agencies/Northwest Frontier Province) and southern Afghanistan" do not support the tribal uprising and back the Taliban.

"Tribal engagements work both ways," a senior US military intelligence source familiar with Pakistan’s tribes told The Long War Journal on the condition of anonymity. "The Taliban can manipulate the tribes to their advantage, and do. They’ve been at this a long time and have real support."

"Tehrik-e-Taliban (the movement of the Taliban in Pakistan) and al Qaeda have been endorsed by the overwhelming majority of the leadership of the Khattak, Wazir, Bhittani, Mehsud, Banuchi, Orakzai, and Niazi tribes that conservatively number in the hundreds of thousands," the source stated. "While the Pakistani state has endorsed the lashkars, none of the leading maliks or khans have, making it very difficult for the lashkars to gain the local legitimacy that they require to champion the necessary resistance."

The source also noted that the current rumors that NATO is willing to negotiate with the Taliban in Afghanistan is undermining the effort to court tribes in Pakistan. "Assuming that you are a khan or malik in the FATA or NWFP, are you going to risk your neck to oppose the Taliban or play it safe and wait to see who ends up on top?"


Related:

Taliban have not split from al Qaeda: sources
Oct. 7, 2008
Pakistan engages the tribes in effort to fight the Taliban
Sept. 29, 2008




Tuesday, October 7, 2008


Taliban have not split from al Qaeda: sources (10:50AM)

Mullah Omar.

The Taliban have not broken ranks with al Qaeda, senior US military and intelligence sources told The Long War Journal. The idea that the Taliban has severed relations is promoted by European countries who wish to back out of Afghanistan after years of bloody fighting, the sources, who wish to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the subject, said.

The reports of a split between al Qaeda and the Taliban originated with CNN after sources claimed senior Taliban leaders were in Saudi Arabia to meet with King Abdullah and several members of the Afghan government.

But sources familiar with al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region told The Long War Journal there is no evidence of a split, and the members of the so-called Taliban delegation have no influence with the senior Taliban leadership.

"There are no indications that Mullah Omar or anyone part of the Taliban's Shura Majlis (or executive council) cut their ties with Osama bin Laden or al Qaeda," one senior source said. "If there is a denunciation or discussion of a break with al Qaeda, I do not see it."

Several members of the Afghan Taliban still serve on al Qaeda's executive leadership council, and there are no indications anyone has been expelled.

"Omar sacrificed his country and his throne to protect Osama" by opposing the US in the run-up to the US invasion in 2001, a source said. "Why, after the Taliban is in ascendancy in Afghanistan in Pakistan, would they abandon al Qaeda now?"

Negotiators are Taliban outsiders

The press reports have focused on the members of the so-called Taliban peace negotiators, but have failed to review at who exactly is participating in the talks. A look at the Afghans involved shows these are men who have fallen out of favor with the Taliban high command.

"There were no senior leaders of the Taliban present in Saudi Arabia," one senior source told The Long War Journal. "Not one member of the Taliban Shura Majlis. Not even one senior Taliban official in good standing with the leadership."

"They are all outsiders," the source reiterated.

Included in the Taliban negotiating team are Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, and Mullah Mohamed Tayeb Agha, according to a report in Asharq al Awsat.

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Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil.

Mutawakil, who served as the Taliban's foreign minister in 2001, has long fallen out of favor with the Taliban, according to sources as well as reports in the press. "He has no authority among the Taliban leaders who matter," said one senior source.

The BBC describes Mutawakil as "the more respectable face of the Taliban" as he is considered as "articulate and relatively moderate." He is "several rungs of power removed from the Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar." and broke ranks after Omar refused to hand over Osama bin Laden after the Sept. 11 attacks. In 2002 he claimed he was sent to warn the US of the Sept. 11 attacks but was ignored.

Mutawakil surrendered to the US in February 2002 without seeking approval from the senior Taliban leadership. He was detained by the US and then placed under house arrest in Kabul. The Taliban ejected Mutawakil from the movement in 2003, saying he "does not represent our will". Mutawakil contested the elections in 2005.

Mutawakil has been behind numerous failed attempts to promote reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban. "He is probably sincere but just completely powerless," a source told The Long War Journal.

Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, another purported representative of the Taliban in the Saudi Arabia negotiations, served as the Taliban's ambassador to Pakistan. He was detained by the Pakistani security services in 2002 and sent to the Guantanamo Detention Facility in Cuba before he was released in 2006.

Zaeef is also seen as a "moderate" Taliban and was considered a candidate to join the interim Afghan government. "Zaeef has no standing with the current Taliban leadership," a source said.

Mullah Mohamed Tayeb Agha was also in attendance in Saudi Arabia. While Agha is described as "the spokesman for Taliban leader Mullah Omar," he hasn't held this role for a decade. "That was back in the 1990s," a source familiar with the Taliban leadership said.

The Taliban reject peace talks

Mullah Omar and the Taliban have openly rejected the idea their followers are in negotiations with the Afghan government. Omar and the Taliban issued two press releases since Sept. 28 to quell the rumors.

The first statement, issued by the Taliban on Sept 28, rejected any idea of a peace agreement. "The Shura Council of the Islamic Emriate of Afghanistan considers such baseless rumors as part of the failed efforts by our enemies to create distrust and doubts among Afghans, other nations, and the mujahideed," the statement read. "No official member of the Taliban--now or in the past--has ever negotiated with the US or the puppet Afghan government."

The Taliban then went out of its way to denounce those negotiating under its banner, and clearly referred to Mutawakil, Zaeef, and Agha. "A handful of former Taliban officials who are under house arrest or who have surrendered do not represent the Islamic Emirate."

The Taliban then clearly lay out their strategy to retake power in Afghanistan. The statement is clear they do not seek accommodation, but the removal of NATO troops and the ouster of the Karzai regime. "If out fight was for control of ministries and other prominent positions in the puppet administration, then such negotiations would make sense--but this is not the case," the statement read. "Our struggle is to implement the rules of Allah in Afghanistan by eradicating the enemies of Islam... Our struggle will continue until the departure of all foreign troops."

In a statement signed by Mullah Omar on Sept. 30, he was clear that he believed the Taliban was close to victory and offered the US harsh terms for peace. "If you demonstrate an intention of withdrawing your forces, we once again will demonstrate our principles by giving you the right of safe passage, in order to show that we never harm anyone maliciously," Omar said. He also went out of his way to praise the mujahideen, both Afghan and foreign, in their willingness to take the fight to the West.

Europe looking for an out

The eagerness to promote reconciliation between the Taliban and the Afghan government stems from European governments looking to extract themselves from the Afghan conflict, senior sources tell The Long War Journal.

The reports of the Saudi Arabian negotiations arose after a senior British general said victory in Afghanistan was impossible and the West should dumb down expectations on the outcome of the conflict. A British and a UN diplomat described Afghanistan as "lost." Other European officials have been keen on opening direct negotiations with the Taliban.

US intelligence and military officials are furious over the latest attempts to conduct “misguided” negotiations. "These are the people that brought you Musa Qala and the debacle in Basrah," one senior source said angrily. The source was referring to the Brit's turning over of the district of Musa Qala in Helmand province to the Taliban in 2006 and the Brit's ceding the Iraqi city of Basrah to the Mahdi Army while claiming victory in 2007. The Brits claimed Basrah was a success story and began withdrawing troops as the city fell under the spell of Iranian-backed militias.

Musa Qala had to be retaken in a bloody offensive a year later in 2007. The Iraqi Army launched an offensive six months later to retake Basrah from the Mahdi Army in the spring of 2008.

"These two events were debacles," the source said. "Why should we trust them with current peace talks, particularly when they have no idea who they are negotiating with?"

"We had to clean up their mess twice," another source said, again referring to Musa Qala and Basrah and fearing the negotiations would be taken seriously by Washington. "At this point, it would be better if they left Afghanistan," the source said, frustrated with the lack of unity of command in Afghanistan and the failure of the West to present a unified front against the Taliban and allied groups.




Monday, October 6, 2008


Taliban rebuild children’s suicide camp in South Waziristan (05:36PM)
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Scores of children train to become suicide bombers at a camp run by Qair Hussain in Spinkai, South Waziristan. Image courtesy of AfPax Insider.

The Taliban have rebuilt a camp in South Waziristan that trains children to be suicide bombers, a video from Pakistan shows. Children as young as seven years old are indoctrinated to wage jihad in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The video, obtained by AfPax Insider, was shot in August in Spinkai Ragzai, South Waziristan, a tribal area run by Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. The Taliban are seen "training dozens of boys ranging in age from seven to 14," the news service reported. "The video attempts to justify suicide bombings as a legitimate means of attack against "infidels.'"

The images shows the children reading from the Quran and an adult Taliban training the children. One slide shows a poster board with the words “Killing a Spy” written in English.

While not explicitly stated in the AfPax Insider report, the camp is run by Qari Hussain, a senior lieutenant to Baitullah who has close links to al Qaeda. Hussain has rebuilt his child training camp after the Pakistani military demolished his suicide nursery during a short offensive in Spinkai in January 2008.

In May, a senior Pakistani general described the previous camp as a "factory." The military seized numerous documents and training materials in the demolished camp.

"It was like a factory that had been recruiting nine to 12-year-old boys, and turning them into suicide bombers," said Major General Tariq Khan, the commander of Pakistan's 14 Division, which led the operation in South Waziristan.

"The computers, other equipment and literature seized from the place ... give graphic details of the training process in this so-called ‘nursery,’" Dawn reported in May. "There are videos of young boys carrying out executions, a classroom where 10- to 12-year olds are sitting in formations, with white band of Quranic verses wrapped around their forehead, and there are training videos to show how improvised explosive devices are made and detonated."

The Pakistani military launched the operation in South Waziristan on Jan. 24 after Taliban forces commanded by Baitullah overran two military outposts and conducted attacks against other forts and military convoys in the tribal agency.

The Pakistani military reported that Hussain was killed in January after intercepting Taliban communications. The military later reiterated that claim during the tour of the Spinkai camp on May 18.

Scores of children train to become suicide bombers at a camp run by Qair Hussain in Spinkai, South Waziristan. Image courtesy of AfPax Insider. Click to view.

Hussain held a press conference at a government school building in South Waziristan five days later. During the interview,he mocked the reports of his death. “I am alive, don’t you see me?” Hussain said.

Hussain is believe to be in the running to succeed Baitullah Mehsud in the event of his death. Baitullah is suffering from complications related to kidney disease and was rumored to have died last week. Baitullah was later seen visiting villagers to celebrate Eid in towns throughout South Waziristan.

The Spinkai camp is one of 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations in the Taliban-controled tribal areas and in the Northwest Frontier Province.





17 killed in suicide bombing in Pakistan's Punjab province (08:52AM)

A suicide bomber killed 17 Pakistanis and wounded 40 more in an attack on the home of a politician in the city of Bhakkar in Punjab province.

The bomber struck at the home of Rasheed Akbar Khan Nowani during celebrations for Eid-al-Fitr, the holiday at the end of Ramadan. Nowani, a member of Pakistan's National Assembly, is reported to have been seriously wounded in the attack.

Nowani is a member of the Pakistani Muslim League - Nawaz, or PML-N, political party which is run by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. "He contested the election independently and then joined the PML-N," according to The Pakistani Spectator.

Today's attack is the latest in the Taliban's terror and military campaign that has gripped Pakistan. Suicide bombers have struck in Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Wah, Dera Ismail Khan, Swat, and Bannu over the past year. More than 1,800 Pakistanis have been reported to have been killed in suicide attacks alone this year.

The Taliban has stepped up its promised terror campaign outside of the tribal areas after peace negotiations broke down and the military initiated offensives in Bajaur and Swat.

Baitullah Mehsud, the commander of the Pakistani Taliban, had previously threatened to wage "jihad" and turn the provinces of Sindh and Punjab "into a furnace" if the operations did not cease.

The Taliban insurgency has intensified in Swat, Bajaur, Kohat, Kurram, and other tribal agencies and settled districts in the region. Fighting has been especially heavy in Bajaur and Swat, where the government claimed more than 1,000 Taliban fighters have been killed over the past several weeks. Four days ago, the Taliban targeted the leader of the Awami National Party with a suicide bomber in his home in Charsadda.




Sunday, October 5, 2008


Pakistan has poor track record reporting deaths of senior terrorist leaders (10:24AM)
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Mustafa Abu Yazid from an al Qaeda tape released on Oct. 4. Pakistan claimed Yazid was killed in a battle in Bajaur last summer.

A senior Taliban or al Qaeda leader may have been killed in the Oct. 2 airstrike in North Waziristan, according to unconfirmed reports from Pakistan. But without confirmation from either the Taliban or the US, reports from Pakistani officials should be viewed as suspect.

The US carried out two separate strikes in North Waziristan on Oct. 2. Both strikes hit tribal areas in North Waziristan run by the Haqqani family. The strike in Mohammed Khel is reported to have killed 23, including 16 or more "Arab" al Qaeda members.

"The Taliban appeared extra-perturbed over the latest strike," the The Associated Press reported, based on anonymous Pakistani intelligence sources. "The anger was a signal that a senior militant may have been killed, but that has yet to be confirmed, the officials said."

Taliban fighters are "moving aggressively in the area while using harsh language against locals, including calling them "saleable commodities" — a reference to people serving as government spies," AP reported. The Taliban have surrounded the attack site and are keeping locals away.

The sources did not speculate as to who may have been killed. The US has been hunting Jalaluddin Haqqani, the legendary mujahideen fighter and leader of the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network, and Siraj, his son. The Haqqani family mosque was targeted in an airstrike on Sept. 9.

Both men have been behind major attacks in Afghanistan and lead the insurgency in Khost, Paktia, and Paktika provinces. The Haqqanis shelter al Qaeda leaders and fighters, and support training camps in their tribal areas in Pakistan.

Beware of Pakistani sourcing

The Pakistani government, the military, and intelligence services have been eager to show that senior Taliban and al Qaeda leaders are being killed during Pakistani offensives in the tribal areas. The US has expressed concern over the rise of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Pakistan, and has upped unilateral airstrikes inside Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas in an attempt to prevent attacks on US soil. Pakistani is under enormous pressure to show results in fighting the Taliban and al Qaeda.

But this year's reports of the death of senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders from Pakistani sources have almost always been false.

Since January 2008, nine senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, including Ayman al Zawahiri and Baitullah Mehsud, have been reported to have been killed inside Pakistan. Of those reported killed, only three have been confirmed killed. All three al Qaeda leaders were killed in US cross-border strikes, not in Pakistani offensive operations. The other six leaders who were reported killed by Pakistani sources have appeared in the media or on al Qaeda propaganda tapes.

Al Qaeda and the Taliban typically release a martyrdom announcement when senior operational leaders are killed. The reasons are twofold, a senior intelligence official told The Long War Journal. First, the terror groups want to celebrate the death of their leaders to help with recruitment. Second, the announcement serves to dispel any rumors within the organization and allows the replacement leader to take command.

Without independent confirmation from US intelligence and al Qaeda or the Taliban, reports of the death of senior terrorist leaders from exclusively Pakistani sources should be viewed with skepticism.

False reports:

The following al Qaeda and Taliban leaders were reported kill by Pakistani intelligence sources. These leaders later appeared in the media or on propaganda tapes.

Ayman al Zawahiri: Several large news outlets reported that al Qaeda's second in command was killed or seriously wounded in the May 14 airstrike in South Waziristan that killed al Qaeda WMD chief Abu Khabab al Masri. The Long War Journal was highly critical that Zawahiri was killed at the time. Zawahiri appeared on a videotape a week later urging Pakistanis to fight the government.

Baitullah Mehsud: On Sept. 30, several major news sources reported that Pakistani Taliban leader and South Waziristan warlord Baitullah Mehsud died of natural causes related to kidney problems. The Long War Journal was highly critical that Baitullah was dead, and intelligence sources said he was alive. On Oct. 1, the Taliban denied the report. Baitullah was seen visiting villages in South Waziristan to celebrate Eid-al-Fitr on Oct. 4.

Faqir Mohammed: The Pakistani military claimed Faqir Mohammed, the deputy commander of the Pakistani Taliban and the group's leader in the Bajaur tribal agency, was killed in a battle in Bajaur this summer. A Taliban spokesman immediately denied the report and Faqir appeared in front to the media a day later to dispute the claim of his death. The Pakistani military also claimed Faqir's son, Abdullah Mohammed, was killed, although no proof of his death has been offered.

Mustafa Abu Yazid: The Pakistani military claimed Mustafa Abu Yazid, al Qaeda's senior commander in Afghanistan, was killed in a battle in the Bajaur tribal agency this summer. The Long War Journal was highly critical of the reports of Yazid's death. Al Qaeda never confirmed Yazid's death, and the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies never presented evidence he was killed. Yazid has since appeared on multiple videotapes, including the Oct. 4 release that featured Adam Gadahn. The Pakistani military, who refer to Yazid as Abu Saeed al Masri, claimed Yazid was dead as recently as Sept. 26.

Adam Gadahn: Numerous Pakistani sources told multiple major news outlets that Gadahn was killed in the Jan. 28 airstrike in North Waziristan that killed senior al Qaeda leader Abu Laith al Libi. The Long War Journal was highly critical of the reports of Gadahn's death. Speculation grew after Gadahn failed to appear on al Qaeda propaganda tapes, As Sahab stopped producing English translations for the tapes, and some problems were reported with the release of videos and audio. Gadahn later appeared on a tape on Oct. 4, along with Yazid. Gadahn is the American al Qaeda spokesman who is wanted by the US for treason.

Qari Hussain: The Pakistani military claimed Qari Hussain, a senior lieutenant to Baitullah Mehsud who ran a suicide bomber nursery in South Waziristan, was killed during operations in January. Hussain held a press conference in South Waziristan on May 23, and mocked the Pakistani military. "I am alive, don't you see me?" Hussain said.

Confirmed kills:

Al Qaeda confirmed the death of all three leaders. The US killed the terrorist leaders in airstrikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Abu Laith al Libi: Abu Laith al Libi was killed in a US strike inside the North Waziristan tribal agency in Pakistan in late January. Al Libi was the leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and served as a chief spokesman for al Qaeda. Al Libi also commanded al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan.

Abu Sulayman Jazairi: On May 14, a US airstrike killed Abu Sulayman Jazairi along with 13 associates in an attack against a Taliban and al Qaeda safe house in the town of Damadola in Pakistan's Bajaur tribal agency. Jazairi was a senior Algerian operative for al Qaeda's central organization who directed the group's external operations against the West. He is described as a senior trainer, an explosives expert, and an operational commander tasked with planning attacks on the West.

Abu Khabab al Masri: The US military killed Abu Khabab al Masri during a targeted strike on an al Qaeda safe house in the village of Zeralita in the Azam Warsak region of South Waziristan on July 28. Khabab was al Qaeda's chief bomb maker and headed its chemical and biological weapons programs.




Saturday, October 4, 2008


Adam Gadahn resurfaces in new al Qaeda tape (01:59PM)
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Adam Gadahn, al Qaeda's American spokesman, from his latest tape.

Adam Gadahn, al Qaeda's American spokesman, has resurfaced in a newly released videotape, squashing the rumors that he died in a US airstrike earlier this year. Gadahn was rumored to have been killed in a January 2008 airstrike in North Waziristan that killed Abu Laith al Libi, a senior al Qaeda commander in Afghanistan.

In the tape, titled "The Believer Isn't Stung From The Same Hole Hole Twice," Gadahn appeals to Muslims Pakistan to unite under al Qaeda's banner and end the feuds between various ethnic and tribal groups.

"It's time for you to put aside tribal, ethnic, and territorial differences and petty worldly disputes not just for now but forever and unite to restore the glories of your forefathers and hasten, Allah willing, the defeat of the Zionist-Crusader enemy and the establishment of the Islamic state, the Ummah, the so eagerly anticipated," Gadahn said, according to a partial translation provided by Laura Mansfield.

He called on Muslims in Pakistan to "fight the Crusaders and their agents wherever they are and don't be intimidate by their weak and futile plots." Gadahn also mentioned the US "economic meltdown," proving he is aware of the current crisis and the tape is not a remix of old information.

Gadahn, who is also known as Azzam al Amriki or Azzam the American, is the first American to be charged with treason since 1952. He was indicted in a US federal court under charges of treason and providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization for making al Qaeda propaganda videos. "By aligning himself with al Qaeda, by moving overseas to be closer to al Qaeda’s base and leadership, and by joining in advocating al Qaeda’s terrorist agenda, an agenda that includes the overthrow of the United States government and the murder of American citizens, Adam Gadahn has committed treason against the United States of America," said US Attorney Debra Wong Yang.

The US has a $1 million reward out for information leading to his capture.

Rumors of Gadahn's death spread in early February and continued in March, but his death was never confirmed. He was said to have been killed in the Jan. 28 airstrike in North Waziristan that killed Abu Laith al Libi, al Qaeda's chief commander in Afghanistan, the leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, and a chief spokesman for the terror group. Gadahn was thought to have been attending a strategy meeting of senior al Qaeda commanders in North Waziristan.

At the time, senior US intelligence officials told The Long War Journal there was no evidence that Gadahn was killed, and in fact they believed he was alive. Al Qaeda never released a martyrdom video to celebrate his death.

Gadahn death rumors peaked after the seventh anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks on the US. He did not appear on the al Qaeda's Sept. 11 tape, as he had every year since 2004.

Previous reports on Adam Gadahn rumors:

Gadahn death rumors continue to surface
March 6, 2008
Adam Gadahn rumored killed in North Waziristan strike
February 8, 2008




Friday, October 3, 2008


US conducts two strikes in North Waziristan (04:20PM)

Map of the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province. The government signed peace agreements in the red agencies/ districts; purple districts are under de facto Taliban control; yellow regions are under Taliban influence.

The US launched three airstrikes directed at the Haqqani network and al Qaeda operating in eastern Afghanistan and in Pakistan’s tribal areas. At least three separate attacks by US aircraft were reported in Khost province in Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan's lawless tribal agency of North Waziristan. The attacks occurred in regions known to be controlled by the powerful, al Qaeda friendly Haqqani family.

"There were two separate attacks in Pakistan," a senior US military intelligence told The Long War Journal.

The first strike occurred in the village of Mohammad Khel in North Waziristan. Pakistani intelligence sources told news outlets that 21 "suspected militants" were killed in a Predator unmanned aerial vehicle attack, and "most were foreigners." Sixteen foreign al Qaeda fighters were later reported killed, although none were identified.

The second strike occurred in Datta Khel, also in North Waziristan. A Predator strike hit two homes in the village. Two women and a child were reported killed, and five men were reported wounded.

The Pakistani military denied any violation of its territory. "There was no violation, no incursion or intrusion on our side," Major General Athar Abbas, Pakistan's chief military spokesman said.

The US did conduct a strike in a region in Khost province and warned the Pakistani military of the operation, Abbas told Reuters. "ISAF informed us at around 4:00 p.m. (6:00 a.m. EDT) that they were conducting an operation in Afghanistan, across from North Waziristan," Abbas said.

North Waziristan and Khost province are strongholds of the Haqqani family. The Haqqanis are closely allied with the Taliban and al Qaeda, and have close links with the Inter-Services Intelligence.

The Haqqanis run a parallel government in North Waziristan and conduct military and suicide operations in eastern Afghanistan. Jalaluddin and Siraj Haqqani have close ties to Osama bin Laden. Siraj is one of the most wanted terrorist commanders in Afghanistan for his involvement in a string of deadly attacks and for recruiting and training foreign terrorists for suicide attacks.

Latest US strike in North Waziristan

Today's twin strikes in Pakistan make for three attacks over the past three days. The US hit an al Qaeda safe house in Mirali in North Waziristan after a week-long lull in cross-border raids. Mirali is a known stronghold of al Qaeda leader Abu Kasha. He has close links to both al Qaeda and the Taliban, a senior US intelligence official told The Long War Journal in January 2007.

The US has stepped up attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas this year after the Taliban and al Qaeda consolidated control in the tribal regions and settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. There have been 12 recorded cross-border strikes since Aug. 31. There have been 22 recorded cross-border attacks and attempts in Pakistan in 2008, compared to 10 strikes during 2006 and 2007 combined.

These attacks are designed to interdict al Qaeda’s ability to conduct attacks against the West as well as degrade the Taliban’s support network being used against NATO forces in Afghanistan. Three senior al Qaeda leaders have been killed in the attacks.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, and allied terrorist groups have established 157 training camps and more than 400 support locations in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province, US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

The Pakistani military said it had direct orders to "open fire" on any US forces attempting to violate Pakistan's borders. The military has fired on US helicopters along the border at least three times in September.


US attacks inside Pakistan and incidents along the border in 2008:

US conducts two strikes in North Waziristan
Oct. 3, 2008